Senseonics Holdings (Senseonics Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Senseonics Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Senseonics Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Senseonics Holdings (Senseonics Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Senseonics Holdings Inc (AMEX:SENS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6L6:Germany 6L6:Germany

Address

20451 Seneca Meadows Parkway, Germantown, MD, USA, 20876-7005

Website

https://www.senseonics.com

Senseonics Holdings Inc is a medical technology company. It is focused on the design, development, and commercialization of the glucose monitoring system, which helps people to manage their diabetes community with differentiated, long-term implantable glucose management technology. Its products and services include a Continuous glucose monitoring system, Sensor, Smart transmitter, and Mobile app. The firm has a Glucose monitoring product segment. The majority of the revenue is generated outside of the United States.

Executives

Sharon Larkin	director	C/O SENSEONICS HOLDINGS, INC., 20451 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Douglas A Roeder	director	160 BOVET RD, SUITE 408, C/O DELPHI VENTURES, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Frederick T. Sullivan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SENSEONICS HOLDINGS, INC., 20451 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Mukul Jain	officer: VP Operations, Qual & Reg	20451 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Edward Fiorentino	director	1350 KENNICOTT DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Mirasol Panlilio	officer: VP Global Sales & Marketing	20451 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Timothy T Goodnow	director, officer: President & Chief Exec Officer	20451 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Francine Kaufman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O SENSEONICS HOLDINGS, INC., 20451 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Kenneth L Horton	officer: GC & Corp. Development Advisor	VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED, 130 WAVERLY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Nick B. Tressler	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SENSEONICS HOLDINGS, INC., 20451 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 208786
Anthony R. Raab	director	C/O SENSEONICS HOLDINGS, INC., 20451 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
John Marotta	director	C/O SENSEONICS HOLDINGS, INC., 20451 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Stephen P Defalco	director	ONE EXETER STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Douglas S Prince	director	20 TILESTON STREET, PH4, BOSTON MA 02113
Edelman Steven	director	C/O SENSEONICS HOLDINGS, INC., 20451 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876