Socket Mobile (Socket Mobile) Predictability Rank

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What is Socket Mobile Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Socket Mobile Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Socket Mobile (Socket Mobile) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Socket Mobile Inc (NAS:SCKT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SNB1:Germany

Address

40675 Encyclopedia Circle, Fremont, CA, USA, 94538

Website

https://www.socketmobile.com

Socket Mobile Inc is a producer of data capture products. The company's products are integrated into mobile applications used in mobile point of sale (mPOS), commercial services (field workers), asset tracking, manufacturing process and quality control, transportation and logistics (goods tracking and movement), event management (ticketing, entry, access control, and identification), medical and education. The company offers barcode scanning products for both one-dimensional, including imager and laser, and two-dimensional barcode scanning in standard and durable cases. The company's geographical segments are the United States, Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world, out of which the majority of the revenue is generated from the United States.

Executives

Kevin J Mills	director, officer: President and CEO	40675 ENCYCLOPEDIA CIR., FREMONT CA 94538
Charlie Bass	director	40675 ENCYCLOPEDIA CIR., FREMONT CA 94538
Giacomo Marini	director	40675 ENCYCLOPEDIA CIR., FREMONT CA 94538
Laura Weinstein	director	40675 ENCYCLOPEDIA CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94538
Leonard L Ott	officer: Chief Technical Officer	37400 CENTRAL COURT, NEWARK CA 94560
David A. Holmes	officer: Chief Business Officer	39700 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Lynn Zhao	officer: Vice President and Controller	39700 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
David W Dunlap	officer: CFO	37400 CENTRAL COURT, NEWARK CA 94560
Ivan Lazarev	director	40675 ENCYCLOPEDIA CIR, FREMONT CA 94538
Parnell William L. Jr	director	40675 ENCYCLOPEDIA CIR, FREMONT CA 94538
Nelson C Chan	director	C/O SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED, 1251 MCKAY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Brenton Earl Macdonald	director	39700 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
James Lopez	officer: VP Marketing & Business Dev.	39700 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Erik L. Fidel	director	39700 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Kevin R Jost	director	10370 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77042