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Scientific Energy (Scientific Energy) Predictability Rank


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What is Scientific Energy Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Scientific Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Scientific Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Scientific Energy's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Scientific Energy (Scientific Energy) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Scientific Energy Inc (OTCPK:SCGY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PODC HRYU BZFD BODY ZDGE IZEA ELRE AREN UPXI KRKR GOOGL META HKSE:00700 XAMS:PRX BIDU DASH SPOT JSE:NPN HKSE:01024 SNAP
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
105 Xian Xinghai Great Road, Room K, 9F, Golden Dragon Centre, Macau, CHN
Website
http://www.makeliving.com
Scientific Energy Inc involves in the e-commerce industry. It is a firm principally engaged in developing a website (Makeliving) for providing an e-commerce platform provisioning exchange of goods and services along with its subsidiary. Makeliving is intended to act both as a platform and as a conduit between individuals or companies who desire to acquire goods and services to individuals or companies who desire to offer goods and services.
Executives
Haitao Jiang 10 percent owner RUA DE MADRID, NO.21, WAN YU VILLAS, 9J, MACAU N5 999078
Aspect Group Ltd 10 percent owner HY DIAMOND EXCHANGE BLDG, SUITE A, 7TH FLOOR, HONG KONG XX CHINA
Liang Huang 10 percent owner NO. 43 KUIHUALI, APT. 502, ZHUHUI DISTRICT, HENGYANG, HUNAN PROVINCE F4 421002
Chan Stanley P.c. 10 percent owner C/O 475 EAST 70TH STREET, #7C, NEW YORK NY 10021
Dale C Gledhill director 630 NORTH 400 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84103
Todd B Crosland director, 10 percent owner, officer: President 630 NORTH 400 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84103
Mark Clawson director 630 N. 400 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84103
Jana K Meyer director, officer: Secretary 630 N. 400 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84103

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