SilverBow Resources (SilverBow Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is SilverBow Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SilverBow Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SilverBow Resources (SilverBow Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » SilverBow Resources Inc (NYSE:SBOW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

19W:Germany

Address

920 Memorial City Way, Suite 850, Houston, TX, USA, 77024

Website

https://www.sbow.com

SilverBow Resources Inc is an independent oil and gas company. The company is focused on acquiring and developing assets in the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk located in South Texas. The company's acreage position in each of its operating areas is highly contiguous and designed for optimal and efficient horizontal well development. Its reported oil and gas sales are comprised of revenues from oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids sales. Majority of revenue is generated from Webb County Gas field.

Executives

Strategic Value Partners, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	100 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Marcus C Rowland	director	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024
Gabriel L Ellisor	director	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024
William Eric Schultz	officer: Controller	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024
Charles W Wampler	director	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024
Christopher M Abundis	officer: EVP, CFO, GC & Sec'y	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024
Michael Duginski	director	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024
Sean C Woolverton	director, officer: CEO	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024
Jennifer M Grigsby	director	6100 N WESTERN AVENUE, POST OFFICE BOX 18496, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73154-0496
Kathleen S Mcallister	director	DEEPWATER HOUSE, KINGSWELLS CAUSEWAY, PRIME FOUR BUSINESS PARK, ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND X0 AB15 8PU
Victor Khosla	director, 10 percent owner	100 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Svp Special Situations Iii Llc	director, 10 percent owner	100 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Svp Special Situations Iii-a Llc	director, 10 percent owner	100 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Kimmeridge Energy Management Company, Llc	10 percent owner	15 LITTLE WEST 12TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Steven W Adam	officer: EVP and COO	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024