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Sachem Capital (Sachem Capital) Predictability Rank


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What is Sachem Capital Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sachem Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Sachem Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sachem Capital (Sachem Capital) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Sachem Capital Corp (AMEX:SACH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SEVN AAIC AJX MITT LFT EARN AOMR GPMT CHMI ACR NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC CMTG ARI LADR
Traded in Other Exchanges
SACHpA.PFD:USA
Address
538 East Main Street, Branford, CT, USA, 06405
Website
https://www.sachemcapitalcorp.com
Sachem Capital Corp is a United States-based real estate investment trust. The company specializes in originating, underwriting, funding, servicing, and managing a portfolio of short-term loans secured by first mortgage liens on real property located in Connecticut. Its primary objective is to grow the loan portfolio while protecting and preserving capital in a manner that provides for attractive risk-adjusted returns to shareholders over the long term through dividends. The company earns majority of its revenue through Interest income from loans.
Executives
Leslie Bernhard director C/O ADSTAR, INC., 488 S. ROYAL LANE, COPPELL TX 75019
Brian A Prinz director C/O SACHEM CAPITAL CORP., 23 LAUREL, BRANFORD CT 06405
Arthur L Goldberg director C/O MILESTONE SCIENTIFIC INC., 220 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
William C Haydon officer: See Remarks C/O SACHEM CAPITAL CORP., 698 MAIN STREET, BRANFORD CT 06405
John E Warch officer: See Remarks FALCON FINANCIAL INVESTMENT TRUST, 15 COMMERCE RD, STAMFORD CT 06902
John L. Villano director, officer: Chairman, CEO, President & CFO 23 LAUREL STREET, BRANFORD CT 06405
Peter J Cuozzo officer: EVP and COO C/O SACHEM CAPITAL CORP., 698 MAIN STREET, BRANFORD CT 06405
Jeffrey C Villano director, 10 percent owner, officer: President,co-CEO and Treasurer 23 LAUREL STREET, BRANFORD CT 06405

Sachem Capital (Sachem Capital) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Sachem Capital to Present at Microcap Rodeo's Fall Harvest - Best Ideas from the Buy-Side on Tuesday, October 5, 2021

By ACCESSWIRE ACCESSWIRE • 09-30-2021