Progressive Care (Progressive Care) Predictability Rank

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What is Progressive Care Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Progressive Care Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Progressive Care (Progressive Care) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Progressive Care Inc (OTCPK:RXMD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

400 Ansin Boulevard, Suite A, Hallandale Beach, FL, USA, 33009

Website

https://www.progressivecareus.com

Progressive Care Inc is a personalized healthcare services and technology company which provides prescription pharmaceutical services, risk management, and data analytics to healthcare organizations and providers. The company through its wholly-owned subsidiary Pharmco, provides prescription pharmaceuticals, compounded medications, tele-pharmacy services, anti-retroviral medications, medication therapy management, the supply of prescription medications to long-term care facilities, and health practice risk management. It also offers certain disease testing and vaccinations. It offers services in a variety of languages, including English, Spanish, French, Creole, Portuguese, Ukrainian, and Russian.

Executives

Charles M. Fernandez	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O FAIRHOLME CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., 4400 BISCAYNE BOULEVARD, 9TH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33137
Rodney Barreto	director, 10 percent owner	460 MARQUESA DRIVE, CORAL GABLES FL 33156
Pamela M Roberts	officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	1540 NW 203 ST, MIAMI FL 33169
Pedro Rodriguez	director	258 NE 27TH STREET, MIAMI FL 33137
Birute Norkute	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2311 NE 174TH ST, MIAMI FL 33160
Alan Jay Weisberg	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	2500 NORTH MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 206, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Cecile Munnik	officer: CFO	400 ANSIN BLVD SUITE A, HALLANDALE BEACH FL 33009
Joseph Ziegler	director	1051 HILLSBORO MILE, PH2, HILLSBORO BEACH FL 33062
Jervis Hough	director	6053 BARTAM COVE, DULUTH GA 30097
Shital P Parikh	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	1111 PARK CENTER BLVD., SUITE 202, MIAMI GARDENS FL 33169
Vernon Watson	officer: Chief Executive Officer	1111 PARK CENTER BLVD., SUITE 202, MIAMI GARDENS FL 33169
Armen Karapetyan	10 percent owner	17395 NORTH BAY ROAD, SUITE 102, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Avraham A. Friedman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PROGRESSIVE CARE INC., 901 N. MIAMI BEACH BLVD., SUITE 1, N. MIAMI BEACH FL 33162
Andy Subachan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PROGRESSIVE CARE INC., 901 N. MIAMI BEACH BLVD., SUITE 1, N. MIAMI BEACH FL 33162
Buddy Young	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO, CFO, Chairman