Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings (Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings (Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc (NAS:RVPH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

19925 Stevens Creek Boulevard, Suite 100, Cupertino, CA, USA, 95014

Website

https://www.revivapharma.com

Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and seeks to commercialize therapeutics for diseases. The current pipeline of the company focuses on the central nervous system, respiratory, and metabolic diseases. The company uses a chemical genomics-driven technology platform and proprietary chemistry to develop new medicines. The company's pipeline currently has two drug candidates, 1) Brilaroxazine (RP5063) which is in clinical development and is intended to treat multiple neuropsychiatric indications, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, behavioral and psychotic symptoms of dementia or Alzheimer's disease, and Parkinson's disease psychosis and 2) RP1208.

Executives

Purav Patel	director	19925 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., SUITE 100, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Narayan Parbhu	officer: Chief Financial Officer	19925 STEVENS CREEK BLVD. SUITE 100, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Beta Operators Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 13D, NEW YORK NY 10019
Vedanta Associates, L.p.	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 13D, NEW YORK NY 10019
Vedanta Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 13D, NEW YORK NY 10019
Vedanta Associates-r, Lp	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, STE 13D, NEW YORK NY 10019
Parag Saxena	director, 10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 13D, NEW YORK NY 10019
Rahul Nayar	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Tenzing Llc	director, 10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Laxminarayan Bhat	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	19925 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., SUITE 100, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Leslie D. Funtleyder	director	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 340 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10173
Marc Cantillon	officer: Chief Medical Officer	19925 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., SUITE 100, CUPPERTINO CA 95014
Richard A Margolin	director	19925 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, SUITE 100, CUPPERTINO CA 95014
Glazer Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Paul J Glazer	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH ST, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019