Revolve Group (Revolve Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2019. Start your Free Trial

What is Revolve Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Revolve Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Revolve Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Revolve Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Revolve Group (Revolve Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Revolve Group Inc (NYSE:RVLV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RVLV:Mexico

Address

12889 Moore Street, Cerritos, CA, USA, 90703

Website

https://www.revolve.com

The Revolve Group is an emerging e-commerce retailer, selling women's dresses, handbags, shoes, beauty products, and incidentals across its marketplace properties, Revolve and FWRD. The platform is built to suit the "next-generation customer," emphasizing mobile commerce, influencer marketing, and occupying an aspirational but attainable luxury niche. With $1.1 billion in 2022 net sales, the firm sits just outside the top 30 apparel retailers (by sales) in the U.S., but has consistently generated top-line growth north of 20%-25% as the industry continues to favor digital channels. Revolve generates approximately 20% of sales from private-label offerings, while focusing on building an inventory of unique products from emerging fashion brands with less than $10 million in annual sales.

Executives

Michael Mente	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O REVOLVE GROUP, INC., 12889 MOORE ST., CERRITOS CA 90703
Michael Karanikolas	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O REVOLVE GROUP, INC., 12889 MOORE ST., CERRITOS CA 90703
Mmmk Development, Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O REVOLVE GROUP, INC., 12889 MOORE ST., CERRITOS CA 90703
Oana Ruxandra	director	C/O WARNER MUSIC GROUP CORP., 1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Marc D Stolzman	director	C/O REVOLVE GROUP, INC., 12889 MOORE ST., CERRITOS CA 90703
Jesse Timmermans	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O REVOLVE GROUP, INC., 12889 MOORE ST., CERRITOS CA 90703
David Pujades	officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	16800 EDWARDS ROAD, CERRITOS CA 90703
L.p. Tsg6	10 percent owner	TSG CONSUMER PARTNERS, 600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 2900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Hadley Mullin	director	C/O TSG CONSUMER PARTNERS, 600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 2900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Melanie Cox	director	C/O REVOLVE GROUP, INC., 12889 MOORE ST., CERRITOS CA 90703
Jennifer Baxter Moser	director	C/O TSG CONSUMER PARTNERS, 600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 2900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Tsg6 Management L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O TSG CONSUMER PARTNERS, LLC, 600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 2900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111