RVL Pharmaceuticals (RVL Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is RVL Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RVL Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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RVL Pharmaceuticals (RVL Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » RVL Pharmaceuticals PLC (OTCPK:RVLPQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

400 Crossing Boulevard, Bridgewater, NJ, USA, 08807

Website

https://www.rvlpharma.com

RVL Pharmaceuticals PLC is a pharmaceutical company focused on the commercialization and development of products that target markets with underserved patient populations in the ocular medicine and medical aesthetics therapeutic areas. Its revenues consist of product sales, royalty revenues and licensing revenue.

Executives

Foundation Harsaul	10 percent owner	EDIFICIO AFRA, AVENIDA SAMUEL LEWIS Y CALLE 54, PANAMA R1
Altchem Ltd	10 percent owner	KARAISKAKI 6, CITY HOUSE, LIMASSOL G4 3032
Alisa Lask	director	C/O 380 LACKAWANNA PLACE, SOUTH ORANGE NJ 07079
David F Burgstahler	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WARNER CHILCOTT HOLDINGS CO., LTD., 100 ENTERPRISE DRIVE, ROCKAWAY NJ 07866
Athyrium Opportunities Associates Iv Co-invest Llc	10 percent owner	505 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10017
Athyrium Opportunities Associates Iv Lp	10 percent owner	505 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10017
Athyrium Opportunities Associates Iv Gp Llc	10 percent owner	505 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10017
Athyrium Opportunities Iv Co-invest 2 Lp	10 percent owner	505 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10017
Athyrium Opportunities Iv Acquisition 2 Lp	10 percent owner	505 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10017
Athyrium Funds Gp Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	505 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10017
Avista Healthcare Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	65 E. 55TH STREET, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brian A Markison	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	501 FIFTH STREET, BRISTOL TN 37620
Sriram Venkataraman	director, 10 percent owner	C/O AVISTA CAPITAL PARTNERS, 65 EAST 55TH STREET, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jeffrey Ferrell	10 percent owner	ATHYRIUM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP, 505 FIFTH AVENUE, FL 18, NEW YORK NY 10017
James Schaub	officer: EVP and COO	400 CROSSING BOULEVARD, C/O OSMOTICA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807