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Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP (Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP) Predictability Rank


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What is Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP (Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP (NYSE:RNF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XKRX:025860 SHSE:600727 BOM:524230 SHSE:600423 SHSE:603810 HKSE:01866 BOM:500355 KAR:FATIMA SHSE:600470 KAR:DAWH SZSE:002942 BOM:538666 UAN AVD IPI SZSE:300387 SHSE:603970 SHSE:600538 SZSE:002018 SZSE:300138
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.rentechnitrogen.com
Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP is a Delaware limited partnership formed in July 2011. The Company is engaged in manufacturing of nitrogen fertilizer. The Company owns and operates two fertilizer facilities: East Dubuque Facility and Pasadena Facility. The East Dubuque Facility produces ammonia, UAN, liquid and granular urea, nitric acid and food-grade carbon dioxide, or CO2, using natural gas as its primary feedstock. Some of these products are final products sold to customers, and others, including ammonia, are both final products and feedstocks for other products, such as UAN, nitric acid, liquid urea and granular urea. The Pasadena Facility ceased production of diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate. Its Pasadena Facility is the producer of synthetic ammonium sulfate and the third largest producer of ammonium sulfate in North America. The Pasadena Facility's products are applied to many types of crops including soybeans, potatoes, cotton, canola, alfalfa, corn and wheat. The Company is subject to a number of federal and state laws and regulations related to safety, including the federal Occupational Safety and Health Act, or OSHA, and comparable state statutes, the purpose of which are to protect the health and safety of workers.
Executives
Michael S Burke director C/O AECOM TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, SUITE 3700, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Keith B Forman director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 7200 TEXAS COMMERCE TOWER, 600 TRAVIS ST, HOUSTON TX 77002
John Howard Diesch director, officer: President 1331 17TH STREET, SUITE 720, DENVER CO 80202
Rentech, Inc. 10 percent owner 10877 WILSHIRE BLVD, 10TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Carl C Icahn 10 percent owner C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Halbert S Washburn director 515 SOUTH FLOWER STREET 48TH FLOOR, SUITE 4800, LOS ANGELES CA 90071