Revlon (Revlon) Predictability Rank

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What is Revlon Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Revlon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Revlon Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Revlon (Revlon) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Revlon Inc (OTCPK:REVRQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

55 Water Street, New York, NY, USA, 10041

Website

https://www.revloninc.com

Revlon Inc is a company that is principally engaged in the cosmetics industry. The company's reportable segments include Revlon, Elizabeth Arden, Portfolio and Fragrances. It generates maximum revenue from the Revlon segment. Geographically, it operates in North America, EMEA, Asia, Latin America and the Pacific of which the North America region derives the majority of revenue. Some of the company brands include Revlon, Elizabeth Arden, Almay, Revlon Professional, American Crew, CND, and Mitchum brands. The company distributes and sell its products to large volume retailers, chain drug and food stores, chemist shops, hypermarkets, general merchandise stores, e-commerce sites, television shopping, department stores, professional hair and nail salons, and specialty cosmetic stores.

Executives

Debra Golding Perelman	director	35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Ronald O Perelman	director, 10 percent owner	35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021
Matthew Kvarda	officer: Interim CFO	ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10004
Christine C. Chen	officer: Interim CAO & Controller	ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10004
Beril Yildiz	officer: VP, CAO & Controller	ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10004
E Scott Beattie	director	C/O ELIZABETH ARDEN, INC., 2400 SW 145 AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, MIRAMAR FL 33027
Sergio Pedreiro	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Mitra O'neill	director	C/O ATHENE HOLDING LTD., WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Victor K Nichols	director	130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Nicole Avant	director	ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, 50TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004
Pamela Bucher	officer: VP, CAO & Controller	ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, 50TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004
Victoria L Dolan	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY, 300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Wendel Kralovich	officer: SVP, CAO & Controller	1 NEW YORK PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10004
Jamie Sanchez	officer: Interim CAO & Controller	1 NEW YORK PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10004
Kristin A Dolan	director	C/O MSG TWO PENN PLAZA, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10121