Reata Pharmaceuticals (Reata Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Reata Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Reata Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Reata Pharmaceuticals (Reata Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Reata Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:RETA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5320 Legacy Drive, Plano, TX, USA, 75024

Website

https://www.reatapharma.com

Reata Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on identifying, developing, and commercializing therapeutics to address serious and life-threatening diseases by targeting molecular pathways. The company's product in the pipeline include bardoxolone methyl; Omaveloxolone and others.

Executives

Steven Ryder	director	234 CHURCH STREET, SUITE 1020, NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Antal Rohit Desai	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PROCEPT BIOROBOTICS CORPORATION, 900 ISLAND DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Rajiv Patni	officer: EVP, Chief R&D Officer	C/O OCERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 610, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Bhaskar Anand	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	5320 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Manmeet Singh Soni	officer: COO, CFO and President	C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Martin Edwards	director	15 NEW ENGLAND EXECUTIVE PARK, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Dawn Carter Bir	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O REATA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2801 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 150, IRVING TX 75063
Christy J. Oliger	director	85 WELLS AVENUE, SUITE 210, NEWTON MA 02459
Andrea Loewen	officer: SVP, Global Regulatory Affairs	C/O VITAL THERAPIES, INC., 15010 AVENUE OF SCIENCE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Shamim Ruff	director	215 FIRST STREET, SUITE 415, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Mcclellan William D. Jr.	director	C/O APOLLO ENDOSURGERY, INC., 1120 S., CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, BLDG. 1, SUITE 300, AUSTIN TX 78746
Michael D Wortley	officer: See Remarks	5320 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Meyer Colin John	officer: See Remarks	C/O REATA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2801 GATEWAY DR. SUITE 150, IRVING TX 75063
Biogen Inc.	other: See footnotes	225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Samina Khan	officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer	5320 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024