RPC (RES) Predictability Rank

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What is RPC Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RPC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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RPC (RES) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » RPC Inc (NYSE:RES) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RLD:Germany

Address

2801 Buford Highway NE, Suite 300, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30329

Website

https://www.rpc.net

RPC Inc is an oilfield services company. It provides specialized oilfield services and equipment primarily to independent and major oil and gas companies engaged in the exploration, production, and development of oil and gas properties throughout the United States. The company's operating segment includes Technical Services and Support Services. It generates maximum revenue from the Technical Services segment. Technical Services segment consists primarily of pressure pumping, downhole tools, coiled tubing, snubbing, nitrogen, well control, wireline, and fishing. Support Services segment consists primarily of drill pipe and related tools, pipe handling, pipe inspection and storage services, and oilfield training and consulting services.

Executives

Gary W. Rollins Voting Trust U/a Dated September 14, 1994	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
Amy Rollins Kreisler	director	2801 BUFORD HIGHWAY, NE, SUITE 520, ATLANTA GA 30329
Timothy Curtis Rollins	director	2801 BUFORD HIGHWAY, NE, SUITE 520, ATLANTA GA 30329
Pam R Rollins	director	2170 PIEDMONT ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30324
Gary W Rollins	director, 10 percent owner	2170 PIEDMONT ROAD NE, ATLANTA GA 30324
Lor Inc	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
Michael Schmit	officer: CFO and Corporate Secretary	3055 TORRINGTON DRIVE, BALL GROUND GA 30107
John F Wilson	director	2170 PIEDMONT ROAD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30324
Rollins Holding Company, Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
Ben M Palmer	officer: VP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O MARINE PRODUCTS CORP, 2170 PIEDMONT RD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30324
Patrick J. Gunning	director	1958 CALDER COURT, DUNWOODY GA 30338
Susan R. Bell	director	852 CASTLE FALLS DR., ATLANTA GA 30329
Harry J Cynkus	director	2170 PIEDMONT RD, ATLANTA GA 30324
Jerry W Nix	director	2999 WILDWOOD PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30339
R. Randall Rollins 2012 Trust	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30329