Riley Exploration Permian (Riley Exploration Permian) Predictability Rank

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What is Riley Exploration Permian Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Riley Exploration Permian Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Riley Exploration Permian (Riley Exploration Permian) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Riley Exploration Permian Inc (AMEX:REPX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

T7U:Germany

Address

29 E. Reno Avenue, Suite 500, Oklahoma City, OK, USA, 73104

Website

https://www.rileypermian.com

Riley Exploration Permian Inc is engaged in the business of exploration for and production of oil and natural gas. The company operations are in Kansas Properties, Tennessee Properties, among others.

Executives

Bryan H Lawrence	director	C/O CROSSTEX ENERGY HOLDINGS INC, 2501 CEDAR SPRINGS STE 600, DALLAS TX 75201
Riley Exploration Group, Llc	10 percent owner	2008 NORTH COUNCIL AVE, BLANCHARD OK 73010
Bobby Riley	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	29 EAST RENO, SUITE 500, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73104
Alvin Gerald Libin	10 percent owner	3200 255 5TH AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2P 3G6
Kevin Riley	officer: PRESIDENT	29 EAST RENO, SUITE 500, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73104
E Wayne Nordberg	director	C/O HOLLOW BROOK WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC, 420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 2840, NEW YORK NY 10170
Brent Alexander Arriaga	director	12330 BROKEN BOUGH DR, HOUSTON TX 77024
Philip A Riley	officer: EVP STRATEGY	919 MILAM STREET, SUITE 550, HOUSTON TX 77005
Riley Corey Neil	officer: EVP BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE	4430 CRITTENDEN DRIVE, NORMAN OK 73072
Rebecca L Bayless	director	18 MAYMONT WAY, THE WOODLANDS TX 77382
Balmon Investments Ltd.	10 percent owner	3200 255 5TH AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2P 3G6
Estate Of Antonie Vandenbrink	10 percent owner	59 BELAIRE PLACE SW, CALGARY A0 T2V2C3
Di Santo Beth A	director	170 CHRISTOPHER STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Amber Bonney	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	914 N. BROADWAY, SUITE 230, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Texel Resources Inc.	10 percent owner	59 BELAIRE PLACE SW, CALGARY A0 T2V2C3