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Red Trail Energy LLC (Red Trail Energy LLC) Predictability Rank


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What is Red Trail Energy LLC Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Red Trail Energy LLC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Red Trail Energy LLC Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Red Trail Energy LLC's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Red Trail Energy LLC (Red Trail Energy LLC) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Red Trail Energy LLC (OTCPK:REGX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ORGN RYAM BLGO ASPI CRDE GURE VHI REX LXU WLKP SAU:2010 TSE:4063 XTER:BAS DOW XKRX:051910 SZSE:002493 SHSE:600989 XKRX:086520 CE XKLS:5183
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3682 Highway 8 South, P.O. Box 11, Richardton, ND, USA, 58652
Website
http://www.redtrailenergyllc.com
Red Trail Energy LLC is USA based firm engaged in constructing, owning, and operating a fuel-grade ethanol plant near Richardton, North Dakota in western North Dakota. The company's product offering includes ethanol, distillers' grains, and corn oil.
Executives
Jodi Marie Johnson officer: Chief Financial Officer PO BOX 513, MEDORA ND 58645
Anthony Lee Mock director 5665 22ND AVE SE, KINTYRE ND 58549
Kent Wayne Anderson officer: Chief Financial Officer 1767 PRAIRIE AVENUE, DICKINSON ND 58601
Calvin Diehl officer: Chief Executive Officer 3682 HIGHWAY 8 SOUTH, P O BOX 11, RICHARDTON ND 58652
Gerald Bachmeier officer: Interim Chief Executive Office 20897 467TH AVE, MORRIS MN 56267
Sidney A Mauch director 712 WYNDEMERE DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
Mike Appert director 755 HIGHWAY 34, HAZELTON ND 58544
William Price director 2273 RIVER ROAD, PRICE ND 58530
Jody Hoff director 8601 HIGHWAY 10 EAST, RICHARDTON ND 58652
Mark Klempel officer: Chief Financial Officer 3682 HIGHWAY 8 SOUTH, RICHARDTON ND 58652
Mick J Miller officer: President 3682 HIGHWAY 8 SOUTH, RICHARDTON ND 58652
Roger N Berglund director 104 9TH AVENUE NW, BOWMAN ND 58623
Frank Kirschenheiter director 322 12TH AVENUE WEST, RICHARDTON ND 58652
Tim Meuchel director 510 MAIN AVENUE, HEBRON ND 58638
Bonnie G Eckelberg officer: Chief Financial Officer 3682 HIGHWAY 8 SOUTH, RICHARDTON ND 58652

Red Trail Energy LLC (Red Trail Energy LLC) Headlines

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