Renewable Energy Group (Renewable Energy Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Renewable Energy Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Renewable Energy Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Renewable Energy Group (Renewable Energy Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Renewable Energy Group Inc (NAS:REGI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

416 South Bell Avenue, Ames, IA, USA, 50010

Website

https://www.regi.com

Renewable Energy Group Inc is a producer and refiner of biofuels in the oil and gas industry. The company's operations include acquiring feedstock, operating biorefineries, and marketing and distributing renewable fuels. Its operating segments include Biomass-based Diesel, Services, and Corporate and other. The majority of the company's revenue comes from the sale of biomass-based diesel. Geographically, it operates in the United States, Germany and Other Foreign countries of which the United States derived maximum revenue. At its biorefineries, natural fats, oils, and greases are converted into biofuels and renewable chemicals.

Executives

Stacey Orlandi	other: SVP, Manufacturing	C/O RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC. 416 SOUTH BELL AVENUE AMES IA 50010
Eric Bowen	officer: VP, Corp Bus Dev and Legal	C/O RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC. 416 SOUTH BELL AVENUE AMES IA 50010
Dylan Glenn	director	535 BROAD HOLLOW ROAD, SUITE B51, MELVILLE NY 11747
Niharika Ramdev	director	C/O XL HYBRIDS, INC., 145 NEWTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02135
Todd Samuels	other: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC. 416 SOUTH BELL AVENUE AMES IA 50010
Chad Stone	officer: Chief Financial Officer	REG NEWCO, INC. 416 S. BELL AVENUE AMES IA 50010
Cynthia J Warner	director, officer: President and CEO	1925 WEST FIELD COURT, SUITE 200, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Harding Peter John Martin	director	416 S. BELL AVE. AMES IA 50010
Richard Craig Bealmear	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1114 COLFAX STREET EVANSTON IL 60201
Jeffrey Stroburg	director	REG NEWCO, INC. 416 S. BELL AVENUE AMES IA 50010
Christopher D. Sorrells	director	REG NEWCO, INC., 416 S. BELL AVENUE, AMES IA 50010
Todd Allen Robinson	officer: InterimChief Financial Officer	RENEWABLE ENERGY, INC. 416 SOUTH BELL AVENUE AMES IA 50010
Walter Z Berger	director	416 SOUTH BELL AVENUE, AMES IA 50010
Gary Haer	officer: VP, Sales and Marketing	416 SOUTH BELL AVENUE C/O RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC. AMES IA 50010
Michael M Scharf	director	12312 OLIVE BOULEVARD SUITE 400 ST. LOUIS MO 63141