Rare Element Resources (Rare Element Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Rare Element Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rare Element Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rare Element Resources (Rare Element Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Rare Element Resources Ltd (OTCPK:REEMF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

P.O. Box 271049, Littleton, CO, USA, 80127

Website

http://www.rareelementresources.com

Rare Element Resources Ltd is a mineral resource company. It focuses on the exploration and development of rare-earth element deposits that carry a favorable distribution of critical rare earth. The company is advancing the development of the 100% owned Bear Lodge REE Project, located in northeast Wyoming.

Executives

Paul Joseph Hickey	director	803 MYLAR PARK DRIVE, CHEYENNE WY 82009
Brent Berg	officer: President and CEO	9384 EAST DIANNA DRIVE, GOLD CANYON AZ 85118
Nicole J. Champine	director	7800 EAST DORADO PLACE, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Wayne Rich	officer: Chief Financial Officer	600 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 2800 SOUTH, DENVER CO 80202
Lowell A Shonk	director	225 UNION BLVD, SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Randall John Scott	officer: President and CEO	C/O RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES LTD., 225 UNION BLVD SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Paul John Schlauch	director	C/O RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES LTD., 225 UNION BLVD SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Gerald W Grandey	director	225 UNION BLVD, SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Barton S Brundage	director	11700 PINE CANYON POINT, PARKER CO 80138
Kenneth J. Mushinski	director	3550 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
David I Roberts	director	3550 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
General Atomic Technologies Corp	10 percent owner
Tenaya Corp	10 percent owner	3550 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Ynchron	10 percent owner	3550 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Norman William Burmeister	director	C/O RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES LTD., 255 UNION BLVD SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80228