Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Rackspace Hosting Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Rackspace Hosting Predictability Rank Related Terms
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Rackspace Hosting (Rackspace Hosting) Business Description
Rackspace Hosting Inc was incorporated in Delaware in March 2000. The Company, through its operating subsidiaries, is a provider of cloud computing services, managing web-based IT systems for small and medium-sized businesses as well as large enterprises. It offers a portfolio of integrated IT solutions for common business needs, including for ecommerce, web content management, website hosting, data services, office mail and collaboration, and private clouds. It also offers advisory services for technology strategy, security and compliance, application assessment and migration, and DevOps automation. It offers its solutions across a variety of IT form factors, including multi-tenant public cloud, dedicated single-tenant servers, private cloud, and hybrid cloud - all delivered with a commitment to open and standard technologies. Its marketing activities include web-based paid and natural search, participation in technology trade shows, conferences and customer events, advertisements in traditional and electronic (web and email-based) media, and targeted regional public relations activities. Its trademark includes Rackspace, Fanatical Support, and RackConnect. The Company is subject to U.S. federal income tax and various state, local, and international income taxes in numerous jurisdictions.
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