What is uniQure NV Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
uniQure NV Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
uniQure NV (uniQure NV) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Paasheuvelweg 25, Amsterdam, NH, NLD, 1105 BP
uniQure NV is a gene therapy company. It develops treatments and platforms for patients suffering from genetic and other devastating diseases. Its products and services are focused on hemophilia, Huntington's disease, and cardiovascular diseases. The company is focused on the development of the pipeline of gene therapies with the collaboration of Bristol Myers Squibb for cardiovascular diseases.
Executives
| Walid Abi-saab |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O UNIQURE N.V., PAASHEUVELWEG 25A, AMSTERDAM P7 11058BP |
| Ricardo Dolmetsch |
officer: President, R&D |
113 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Pierre Caloz |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
UNIQURE N.V., PAASHEUVELWEG 25A, AMSTERDAM P7 P7 11058BP |
| Madhavan Balachandran |
director |
C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873 |
| Rachelle Suzanne Jacques |
director |
C/O CORBUS PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 RIVER RIDGE DRIVE, NORWOOD MA 02062 |
| Robert Gut |
director |
C/O VERSARTIS, INC., 4200 BOHANNON DRIVE, SUITE 250, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Leonard E Post |
director |
|
| Christian Klemt |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
PAASHEUVELWEG 25A, AMSTERDAM P7 1105 BP |
| Jack Kaye |
director |
C/O KERYX BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK X1 10022 |
| Jeremy P. Springhorn |
director |
C/O UNIQUIRE N.V., 113 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| David D. Meek |
director |
3000 KENT AVENUE; SUITE A1-100, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906 |
| Paula Soteropoulos |
director |
49 WINONA STREET, PEABODY MA 01960 |
| Jeannette Potts |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O FORMA THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 500 ARSENAL STREET, SUITE 100, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| Matthew C Kapusta |
director, officer: CEO, Managing Director |
7358 MCVAY ROAD, GERMANTOWN TN 38138 |
| Kuta Alexander Edward Iii |
officer: Executive VP, Operations |
239 WILLIS ROAD, SUDBURY MA 01776 |
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