Quanterix (Quanterix) Predictability Rank

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What is Quanterix Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Quanterix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Quanterix Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Quanterix (Quanterix) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Quanterix Corp (NAS:QTRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

900 Middlesex Turnpike, Billerica, MA, USA, 01821

Website

https://www.quanterix.com

Quanterix Corp is a life sciences company. It focuses on developing an ultra-sensitive digital immunoassay platform that advances precision health for life sciences research and diagnostics. The Simoa bead-based and planar array platforms designed by the company enable customers to reliably detect protein biomarkers in low concentrations in blood, serum and other fluids which are undetectable using conventional, analog immunoassay technologies. The company has developed Simoa technology which is a method of detection of proteins and has the capability of analyzing nearly six biomarkers per test, with anticipated expansion capability.

Executives

Laurie J Olson	director	C/O PFIZER INC. CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
William P Donnelly	director	C/O INGERSOLL RAND INC., 525 HARBOUR PLACE DRIVE, SUITE 600, DAVIDSON NC 28036
Vandana Sriram	officer: Chief Financial Officer	15 ELIZABETH DRIVE, CHELMSFORD MA 01824
Brian J Blaser	director	561 CIRCLE LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Michael A Doyle	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O EASYLINK SERVICES CORPORATION, 33 KNIGHTSBRIDGE ROAD, PISCATAWAY NJ 08854
Masoud Toloue	officer: President, Quanterix & Dx	C/O QUANTERIX CORP, 900 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BILLERICA MA 01821
Sarah E. Hlavinka	director	2111 N MOLTER RD, LIBERTY LAKE WA 99019
Paul M Meister	director	18 SHIP ROCK ROAD, NORTH HAMPTON NH 03862
David R Walt	director	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Martin D Madaus	director	290 CONCORD ROAD, BILLERICA MA 01821
John J Fry	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	8 CENTENNIAL DRIVE, PEABODY MA 01960
E Kevin Hrusovsky	director, officer: EC, President & CEO	68 ELM STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Karen Flynn	director	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
David C. Duffy	officer: SVP R&D and CTO	C/O QUANTERIX CORPORATION, 113 HARTWELL AVENUELE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Dawn Mattoon	officer: Sr VP, Stgc Mrktg & Assay Tech	113 HARTWELL AVENUE, C/O QUANTERIX CORPORATION, LEXINGTON MA 02421