QuinStreet (QuinStreet) Predictability Rank

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What is QuinStreet Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

QuinStreet Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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QuinStreet (QuinStreet) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » QuinStreet Inc (NAS:QNST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5Q8:Germany

Address

950 Tower Lane, 6th Floor, Foster City, CA, USA, 94404

Website

https://www.quinstreet.com

QuinStreet Inc focuses on serving clients in large, information-intensive industries, where the company has pioneered a broad range of Internet marketing tools. QuintStreet aims to partner with search engine companies by helping build websites with flexible content and offerings that are customizable according to the user base. It generates revenue by delivering measurable online marketing results to the clients. Its product offerings comprise a full range of performance marketing products: Clicks, Inquiries, Calls, Applications, and Full Customer Acquisitions.

Executives

Gregory Wong	officer: CFO	950 TOWER LANE, 6TH FLOOR, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Douglas Valenti	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O QUINSTREET, INC., 1051 EAST HILLSDALE BLVD., FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Asmau Ahmed	director	315 RIVERSIDE DRIVE 1B, NEW YORK NY 10025
Hillary B Smith	director	C/O YEXT, INC, 61 NINTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
David J Pauldine	director	300 SIXTH AVE, 8TH FLOOR, PITTSBURGH PA 75222
James R. Simons	director	C/O SPLIT ROCK PARTNERS, 10400 VIKING DRIVE, SUITE 250, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Robin Josephs	director
Anna Liao Fieler	director	2036 STERLING AVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andrew T Sheehan	director	755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
Gregory P Sands	director	755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
John G Mcdonald	director	601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3100, SEATTLE WA 98101-1374
Nina Bhanap	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O QUINSTREET, INC., 1051 EAST HILLSDALE BLVD., FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Matthew Glickman	director	159 MELVILLE AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Martin J Collins	officer: SVP & General Counsel	4000 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Stuart Huizinga	director	440 EAST MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043