Qualstar (Qualstar) Predictability Rank

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What is Qualstar Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Qualstar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Qualstar Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Qualstar (Qualstar) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Qualstar Corp (OTCPK:QBAK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1 Jenner, Suite 200, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618

Website

https://www.qualstar.com

Qualstar Corp is a U.S based provider of data storage systems marketed under the Qualstar brand and of power solutions marketed under the N2Power brand. The company's segments include Power Supplies and Data Storage. Under the Power Supplies segment, it designs, manufactures and sells open frame switching power supplies. Under the Data Storage segment, it designs, manufactures and sells automated magnetic tape libraries used to store, retrieve and manage electronic data in network computing environments. It has its geographic presence in North America, Europe.

Executives

Joy C. Hou	director	C/O QUALSTAR CORPORATION, 1267 FLYNN ROAD, CAMARILLO CA 93012
Steven N Bronson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer
William J Gervais	10 percent owner	1925 ANGUS AVENUE, UNIT B, SIMI VALLEY CA 93063
Leonard Hagan	director	650 THOMAS AVENUE, BALDWIN NY 11510
Bkf Capital Group Inc	10 percent owner	1 JENNER, SUITE 200, IRVINE CA 92618
Bkf Asset Holdings, Inc.	10 percent owner	3990-B HERITAGE OAK COURT, SIMI VALLEY CA 93063
David John Wolenski	director	5328 W. BURGUNDY PL., LITTLETON CO 80123
Nicholas Yarymovych	director	1716 ADDISON ROAD, PALOS VERDES ESTATES CA 90274
Louann Negrete	officer: Chief Financial Officer	31248 OAK CREST DR. SUITE 120, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Miller Lloyd I Iii	10 percent owner
Sean Michael Leder	director	31248 OAK CREST DRIVE, SUITE 120, WEST LAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Jan Daniel Ko Chieh	officer: Executive Vice President	4401 MAR ESCARPA, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92673
William J Lurie	officer: VP Engineering	3990-B HERITAGE OAK CT., SIMI VALLEY CA 93063
Dale Edward Wallis	director	2221 SW 118TH STREET, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73170
Alan B Howe	director	1155 KAS DRIVE SUITE 100, RICHARDSON TX 75081