PrivateBancorp (PrivateBancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is PrivateBancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PrivateBancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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PrivateBancorp (PrivateBancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » PrivateBancorp Inc (NAS:PVTB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

https://www.theprivatebank.com

PrivateBancorp provides financial services to wealthy individuals and their families. It operates seven offices in the Chicago area, and one in St. Louis, Missouri. Services include checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as residential and commercial loans. PrivateBancorp also provides estate planning and trust administration, brokerage accounts, and retirement planning. The company offers investment counsel through its Lodestar subsidiary, in which it has an 80% stake.

Executives

Michelle L Collins	director	C/O MOLEX INCORPORATED, 2222 WELLINGTON COURT, LISLE IL 60503
William R Rybak	director	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILE IL 60563
Edward W Rabin	director	200 WEST MADISON STE.3900, CHICAGO IL 60606
Cheryl Mayberry Mckissack	director	3680 VICTORIA ST. N., C/O DELUXE CORP, SHOREVIEW MN 55126
Norman Bobins	director	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
James Bruce Nicholson	director	500 KIRTS BLVD, TROY MI 48084
Kevin M Killips	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Diane Aigotti	director	C/O PRIVATEBANCORP,INC., 120 SOUTH LASALLE STREET - LEGAL DEPT., CHICAGO IL 60603
Alejandro Silva	director	4118 SOUTH HALSTED STREET, CHICAGO IL 60609
James M Guyette	director	111 TOLLGATE WAY, FALLS CHURCH VA 22046
Gtcr Golder Rauner Ii Llc	director
Roche Collin E	director	303 PERIMETER CENTER NORTH, SUITE 600, ATLANTA GA 30346
Gary S Collins	officer: Pres. The PrivateClients Group	913 SOUTH BOULEVARD, OAK PARK IL 60302
John B Williams	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP, 433 MAIN STREET, GREEN BAY WI 54301
Dennis L Klaeser	officer: Chief Financial Officer	235 EAST MAIN STREET, MIDLAND MI 48640