Permianville Royalty Trust (Permianville Royalty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Permianville Royalty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Permianville Royalty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Permianville Royalty Trust (Permianville Royalty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Permianville Royalty Trust (NYSE:PVL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

601 Travis Street, 16th Floor, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

http://www.permianvilleroyaltytrust.com

Permianville Royalty Trust is a statutory trust which holds net profits interests in the profits from the sale of oil and natural gas production the sale of oil and natural gas production from primarily non-operated assets of both conventional properties in the States of Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico as well as unconventional assets in the Permian and Haynesville basins.

Executives

Permianville Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Trident Capital Vi, L.p.	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Permianville Intermediary Llc - Series 3	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Cross Ocean Partners Management Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Cross Ocean Partners Management Lp	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Cross Ocean Usss Fund I (a) (cayman) Lp	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Cross Ocean Usss Gp Lp	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Cross Ocean Usss Gp Ltd	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Cross Ocean Usss Sif I Lp	10 percent owner	DANESMEAD PARTNERS LIMITED, ARTEMIS HOUSE, 67 FORT STREET, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1106
Cross Ocean Usss Fund I (a) Del Feeder Lp	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Trident Vi, L.p.	10 percent owner	STONE POINT CAPITAL LLC, 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Graham C Goldsmith	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Permianville Intermediary Llc - Series 2	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Permianville Intermediary Llc - Series 1	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Gg Managers Llc	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830