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Promotora Y Operadora de InfraestructuraB de CV (Promotora Y Operadora de InfraestructuraB de CV) Predictability Rank


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What is Promotora Y Operadora de InfraestructuraB de CV Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Promotora Y Operadora de InfraestructuraB de CV Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Promotora Y Operadora de InfraestructuraB de CV Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Promotora Y Operadora de InfraestructuraB de CV (Promotora Y Operadora de InfraestructuraB de CV) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Promotora Y Operadora de Infraestructura SAB de CV (OTCPK:PUODY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TICJ UPIN IDVV SNTE FUNN RJDG AFDG SPOM XMAD:FER ASX:TCL SZSE:001965 SHSE:600377 DFM:SALIK SHSE:600350 BOM:532947 ASX:ALX BSP:CCRO3 VRRM HKSE:00576 SZSE:000429
Traded in Other Exchanges
PYOIF:USA PINFRAL:Mexico PINFRA:Mexico AKY:Germany
Address
Bosque de Cidros No 173, Bosques de las Lomas, Mexico, MEX, 05120
Website
http://www.pinfra.com.mx
Promotora Y Operadora de Infraestructura SAB de CV, or Pinfra, develops and constructs infrastructure projects in Mexico. It completes highways, ports, railways, sewer systems, and other projects related to industrial development. The company holds various concessions from the government to build and then operate structures for several years. The concessions can generate stable revenue, and enhance connectivity within communities. Pinfra has three business segments: concession, construction, and plants. The construction division primarily provides services to its concessions, but has the capability to partner with third parties. Many concessions are fully operational, and the company supplies maintenance and operational support to adhere to requirements.

Promotora Y Operadora de InfraestructuraB de CV (Promotora Y Operadora de InfraestructuraB de CV) Headlines

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Promotora Y Operadora de Infraestructura SAB de CV's Dividend Analysis

By GuruFocus Research • 12-18-2023