ProPetro Holding (ProPetro Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is ProPetro Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ProPetro Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ProPetro Holding (ProPetro Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » ProPetro Holding Corp (NYSE:PUMP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2PG:Germany

Address

1706 South Midkiff, Midland, TX, USA, 79701

Website

https://www.propetroservices.com

ProPetro Holding Corp is a Texas-based oilfield services company. It provides hydraulic fracturing, wireline, and other complementary services to oil and gas companies engaged in the exploration and production of North American unconventional oil and natural gas resources. The company focused on Permian Basin. The operating segment of the company are Hydraulic Fracturing, Cementing, Coiled Tubing, drilling and flowback.

Executives

Michele Vion Choka	director	4140 DUBLIN BLVD, SUITE 400, DUBLIN CA 94568
Phillip A Gobe	director, officer: Executive Chairman	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Elo Omavuezi	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1706 S. MIDKIFF ROAD, MIDLAND TX 79701
Adam Munoz	officer: Senior VP of Operations	1706 S. MIDKIFF ROAD, MIDLAND TX 79701
G Larry Lawrence	director	C/O LEGACY RESERVES GP, LLC, 303 W. WALL STREET, SUITE 1600, MIDLAND TX 79701
David Scott Schorlemer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	16225 PARK TEN PLACE, SUITE 280, HOUSTON TX 77084
Mary P Ricciardello	director	2925 BRIARPARK, SUITE 1050, HOUSTON TX 77042
John J Mitchell	officer: Gen. Counsel & Corp. Secretary	1706 S. MIDKIFF, MIDLAND TX 79701
Armour Spencer D Iii	director	400 W. ILLINOIS, SUITE 800, MIDLAND TX 79701
Wilson Newton W Iii	officer: Gen. Counsel & Corp. Secretary	C/O KEY ENERGY SERVICES, INC., 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 1800, HOUSTON TX 77010
Samuel D Sledge	officer: Chief Strategy & Admin Officer	1706 S. MIDKIFF ROAD, MIDLAND TX 79701
Mark Stephen Berg	director	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Darin G Holderness	officer: Interim CFO	14701 ST. MARY'S LANE, SUITE 275, HOUSTON TX 77079
Anthony James Best	director	9320 LAKESIDE BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Royce Mitchell	director	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038