Patterson-UTI Energy (Patterson-UTI Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Patterson-UTI Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Patterson-UTI Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Patterson-UTI Energy (Patterson-UTI Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Patterson-UTI Energy Inc (NAS:PTEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PE1:Germany PE1:Germany

Address

10713 West Sam Houston Parkway North, Suite 800, Houston, TX, USA, 77064

Website

https://www.patenergy.com

Patterson-UTI Energy is one of the largest land rig drilling contractors in the United States and maintains moderately sized pressure-pumping operations primarily in Texas and the Appalachian region, plus some modest operations in Colombia. It also provides directional drilling services and tool rental services in most U.S. onshore oil and gas basins.

Executives

Tiffany Thom Cepak	director	C/O PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY, INC., 10713 WEST SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY NORTH, SU, HOUSTON TX 77064
Charles Andrew Smith	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	13627 COMELY LANE, HOUSTON TX 77079
Seth David Wexler	officer: GENERAL COUNSEL AND SECRETARY	450 GEARS ROAD, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77067
James Carl Stewart	director	1800 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 450, HOUSTON TX 77056
James Michael Holcomb	officer: President-Drilling Subsidiary	450 GEARS ROAD, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77067
Amy H Nelson	director	2000 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77056
Drummond Robert Wayne Jr	director	1301 MCKINNEY ST, STE 1800, HOUSTON TX 77010
Leslie Ann Beyer	director	C/O NATURAL GAS SERVICES GROUP., INC., 404 VETERANS AIRPARK LANE, SUITE 300, MIDLAND TX 79705
Gary M. Halverson	director	1333 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
Matthew Gillard	officer: President-Completions	3990 ROGERDALE RD., HOUSTON TX 77042
Blackstone Management Associates Vii L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP L.P., 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Bcp Vii/bep Ii Holdings Manager L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Energy Management Associates Ii L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP L.P., 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Bep Diamond Aggregator L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Ema Ii L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP L.P., 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154