What is Plus Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Plus Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Plus Therapeutics (Plus Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4200 Marathon Boulevard, Suite 200, Austin, TX, USA, 78756
Plus Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company. The company focused on the discovery, development, and delivery of complex and innovative treatments for patients battling cancer and rare diseases. Its product pipeline includes Patented RNL and Patented DocePLUS.
Executives
| Marc H Hedrick |
officer: President |
C/O CYTORI THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3020 CALLAN ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Robert P Lenk |
director |
LUNA INNOVATIONS INCORPORATED, 2851 COMMERCE STREET, BLACKSBURG VA 24060 |
| Howard Clowes |
director |
217 DWIGHT ROAD, BURLINGAME CA 94010 |
| Greg Petersen |
director |
3100 MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Sims Andrew John Hugh Macintyre |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4200 MARATHON BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78756 |
| Norman D. Lafrance |
officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER |
MOLECULAR INSIGHT PHARMCEUTICALS, INC., 160 SECOND STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Es-johansson An Van |
director |
6863 BEE CAVE ROAD, SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78736 |
| Ag Postfinance |
10 percent owner |
MINGERSTRASSE 20, BERN V8 3030 |
| Bank Sa Swissquote |
10 percent owner |
CHEMIN DE LA CRETAUX 33, GLAND V8 1196 |
| Anthony Gregg Lapointe |
director |
PO BOX 83216, GAITHERSBURG MD 20883-3216 |
| Ron Martell |
director |
PONIARD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 750 BATTERY STREET, SUITE 330, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Mark Marino |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O CYTORI THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3020 CALLAN ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| John David Harris |
officer: VP and GM of Cell Therapy |
3020 CALLAN ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Gail K Naughton |
director |
C. R. BARD, INC., 730 CENTRAL AVENUE, MURRAY HILL NJ 07974 |
| David Rickey |
director |
|
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