Link Parks (Link Parks) Predictability Rank

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What is Link Parks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Link Parks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Link Parks (Link Parks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Link Parks Inc (OTCPK:PSBZP.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PSBYP.PFD:USA PSBXP.PFD:USA

Address

345 Park Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10154

Website

https://www.psbusinessparks.com

Link Parks Inc formerly NamePS Business Parks Inc is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates primarily multitenant commercial warehouse, office, industrial park, and flex properties in the United States. The business activities of the group functioned through the acquisition, development, ownership and management of commercial real estate and the acquisition, development, ownership and management of multifamily real estate. The company defines flex space as locations that combine both warehouse and office space in a single configuration. Almost half the company's properties are located in California. The company generates nearly most of its revenue from rental income derived from its flex space and low-rise office holdings.

Executives

Timothy J Beaudin	director	C/O CATELLUS DEVELOPMENT CORP, 29029 UPPER BEAR CREEK RD STE 203, EVERGREEN CO 80439
David Eric Levine	director	C/O PS BUSINESS PARKS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Justin A Brown	director	C/O PS BUSINESS PARKS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Ryan Ingle	director	C/O PS BUSINESS PARKS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Andrea Drasites	director	C/O PS BUSINESS PARKS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Samantha Wallack	director	C/O PS BUSINESS PARKS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Nicholas L. Pell	officer: President	521 5TH AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10175
Luke J Petherbridge	officer: CEO & Secretary	3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Matthew Louis Ostrower	officer: See Remarks	3300 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Ernest Michael Freedman	director	1717 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2000, DALLAS TX 75201
Havner Ronald L Jr	director	701 WESTERN AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91201
Maria R Hawthorne	director	701 WESTERN AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91201
Trenton Groves	officer: SVP, CAO & Asst. Sec.	C/O PS BUSINESS PARKS, INC., 701 WESTERN AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91201
Adeel Khan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11620 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Jennifer Holden Dunbar	director	C/O PS BUSINESS PARKS, INC., 701 WESTERN AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91201