What is CarParts.com Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
CarParts.com Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
CarParts.com (CarParts.com) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2050 W. 190th Street, Suite 400, Torrance, CA, USA, 90504
CarParts.com Inc is an online provider of automotive aftermarket parts and repair information. The company principally sells its products to individual consumers through its network of websites and online marketplaces. The company's products consist of collision parts serving the body repair market, engine parts to serve the replacement parts market, and performance parts and accessories.
Executives
| Michael Huffaker |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
2050 W. 190TH STREET, SUITE 400, TORRANCE CA 90504 |
| Henry J Maier |
director |
1000 FEDEX DRIVE, MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15108 |
| Nanxi Liu |
director |
2050 W. 190TH STREET, SUITE 400, TORRANCE CA 90504 |
| Jim Barnes |
director |
16941 KEEGAN AVE, CARSON CA 90746 |
| Ana Dutra |
director |
C/O KORN/FERRY INTERNATIONAL, 1900 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 2600, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Ryan Lockwood |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2050 W. 190TH STREET, SUITE 400, TORRANCE CA 90504 |
| Kals Subramanian |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
2050 W. 190TH STREET, SUITE 400, TORRANCE CA 90504 |
| David Meniane |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
16941 KEEGAN AVENUE, CARSON CA 90746 |
| Houman Akhavan |
officer: VP of Marketiing |
C/O U. S. AUTO PARTS NETWORK, INC., 17150 SOUTH MARGAY AVENUE, CARSON CA 90746 |
| Barry Phelps |
director |
26750 AGOURA RD, CALABASAS CA 91302 |
| Alfredo Gomez |
officer: VP, General Counsel |
10420 RESEARCH ROAD SE, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87123 |
| Lev Peker |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
US AUTO PARTS, 16941 KEEGAN AVENUE, CARSON CA 90746 |
| Sanjiv Gomes |
officer: Interim CTO |
16941 KEEGAN AVENUE, CARSON CA 90746 |
| Jay Keith Greyson |
director |
16941 KEEGAN AVENUE, CARSON CA 90746 |
| Mehran Nia |
director, 10 percent owner |
17150 SOUTH MARGAY AVENUE, CARSON CA 90746 |
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