Prime Medicine (Prime Medicine) Predictability Rank

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What is Prime Medicine Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Prime Medicine Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Prime Medicine (Prime Medicine) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Prime Medicine Inc (NAS:PRME) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

21 Erie Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139

Website

https://www.primemedicine.com

Prime Medicine Inc is a biotechnology company committed to delivering genetic therapies to address diseases by deploying gene editing technology, Prime Editing. The Prime Editing technology is a next-generation technology that can search and replace to restore normal genetic function in the genome and can treat a wide spectrum of diseases with high unmet medical needs and efficient and broad gene editing technology.

Executives

Gv 2019 Gp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Jeffrey D Marrazzo	director	3737 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1300, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
2019, L.p. Gv	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gv 2019 Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gv 2021 Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gv 2021 Gp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
2021, L.p. Gv	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Alphabet Inc.	10 percent owner	1600 AMPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Robert Nelsen	director, 10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Thomas Cahill	director	PRIME MEDICINE, INC., 21 ERIE ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Arch Venture Partners X, Llc	10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Carman Alenson	officer: See Remarks	88 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Keith Crandell	10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Kaye I Foster-cheek	director	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Meredith Goldwasser	officer: SVP, Strategy & Corporate Ops.	PRIME MEDICINE, INC., 21 ERIE ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139