Parks! America (Parks! America) Predictability Rank

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What is Parks! America Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Parks! America Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Parks! America (Parks! America) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Parks! America Inc (OTCPK:PRKA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1300 Oak Grove Road, Pine Mountain, GA, USA, 31822

Website

https://www.animalsafari.com

Parks! America Inc through its subsidiaries involved in the business of acquiring, developing and operating local and regional theme parks and attractions in the United States. The company owns and operates Wild animal safari theme parks located in Pine mountain in the state of Georgia and Strafford in the state of Missouri in the United States. Its operating segment includes Georgia Park; Missouri Park and Texas Park. The company generates maximum revenue from the Georgia Park segment.

Executives

Focused Compounding Fund, Lp	10 percent owner	3838 OAK LAWN AVENUE, SUITE 1000, C/O FOCUSED COMPOUNDING CAPITAL MGMT, DALLAS TX 75219
Charles Kohnen	director	5424 SPICE BUSH COURT, DAYTON OH 45429
Lisa Michelle Brady	director	1007 DOCKWAY DRIVE, HURON OH 44839
Richard Ruffolo	director	C/O THE YANKEE CANDLE COMPANY, INC., 16 YANKEE CANDLE WAY, SOUTH DEERFIELD MA 01373
Focused Compounding Capital Management, Llc	other: Investment Mgr of 10% Owner	1700 ALMA DRIVE, SUITE 460, PLANO TX 75075
Andrew Mitchel Kuhn	other: Managing Member of IA	1700 ALMA DRIVE, SUITE 460, PLANO TX 75075
Geoffrey Harvey Gannon	other: Managing Member of IA	1700 ALMA DRIVE, SUITE 460, PLANO TX 75075
Mark Alan Whitfield	officer: Executive Vice President	1501 COPPERFIELD PARKWAY, APT 312, COLLEGE STATION TX 77845
Voorhis Dale Van	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	5684 PIONEER TRAIL, HIRAM OH 44234
Jeff Lococo	director, officer: Secretary	4304 WALNUT CREEK LANE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Todd R White	officer: Chief Financial Officer	16600 N THOMPSON PEAK PKWY, #1069, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
William S Jump	director	485 OAK CREEK CLIFFS DRIVE, SEDONA AZ 86336
John Paul Gannon	director	6040 KENTIGERN CT. SOUTH, DUBLIN OH 43017
Nicholas Aaron Parks	10 percent owner	5010 THORNBROOK RIDGE, COLUMBIA MO 65203
Jim Meikle	director	208 S ACADEMY AVE, STE 130, EAGLE ID 83616