What is PROCEPT BioRobotics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
PROCEPT BioRobotics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
PROCEPT BioRobotics (PROCEPT BioRobotics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
900 Island Drive, Redwood, CA, USA, 94065
PROCEPT BioRobotics Corp is a surgical robotics company focused on advancing patient care by developing transformative solutions in urology. It develops, manufactures, and sells the AquaBeam Robotic System, an advanced, image-guided, surgical robotic system for use in minimally invasive urologic surgery, with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia, or BPH. The company's assets are based in the United States. Its revenue is generated from sales of the AquaBeam Robotic System and the accompanying single-use disposable handpieces.
Executives
| Alaleh Nouri |
officer: SVP, GEN COUNSEL, CORP. SEC. |
1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089 |
| Kevin Waters |
officer: Senior VP, CFO |
1310 CHESAPEAKE TERRACE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089 |
| Frederic H Moll |
director |
C/O INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC, 950 KIFER ROAD, SUNNYVALE CA 94086 |
| Wood Morgan Colby |
director |
C/O PROCEPT BIOROBOTICS CORPORATION, 900 ISLAND DRIVE, REDWOOD CA 94065 |
| Reza Zadno |
director, officer: President, CEO |
2710 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Hisham Shiblaq |
officer: SVP, Commercial Operations |
C/O PROCEPT BIOROBOTICS CORPORATION, 900 ISLAND DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065 |
| Thomas M Krummel |
director |
C/O CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE GROUP, 1720 N. FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95118 |
| Viking Global Investors Lp |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Viking Global Opportunities Parent Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Dragsa 88 Llc |
10 percent owner |
55 RAILROAD AVE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Rose Sharon Shabet |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Viking Global Opportunities Illiquid Investments Sub-master Lp |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Viking Global Opportunities Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
55 RAILROAD AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Viking Global Opportunities Portfolio Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| David C. Ott |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
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