Perma-Pipe International Holdings (Perma-Pipe International Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Perma-Pipe International Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Perma-Pipe International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Perma-Pipe International Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Perma-Pipe International Holdings (Perma-Pipe International Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Perma-Pipe International Holdings Inc (NAS:PPIH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

24900 Pitkin Road, Suite 309, Spring, TX, USA, 77386

Website

https://www.permapipe.com

Perma-Pipe International Holdings Inc is engaged in the manufacture and sale of products in the reportable segment of Piping Systems. The company engineers, designs, manufactures and sells specialty piping systems and leak detection systems. Specialty piping systems include insulated and jacketed district heating and cooling piping systems for efficient energy distribution from central energy plants to multiple locations, primary and secondary containment piping systems for transporting chemicals, hazardous fluids and petroleum products, and the coating and insulation of oil and gas gathering and transmission pipelines. It operates in the United States, Canada, Middle East, Europe, India and other countries.

Executives

David B Brown	director	9870 PLANO ROAD, DALLAS TX 75238
Cynthia Boiter	director	6410 W. HOWARD STREET, NILES IL 60714
Jerome T. Walker	director	10205 WESTHEIMER, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77042
Robert Joseph Mcnally	director	625 LIBERTY AVENUE, SUITE 1700, C/O EQT CORPORATION, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Matthew Earl Lewicki	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	20719 KINGS CROWN CT, HUMBLE TX 77346
David S Barrie	director	2409 BOXWOOD LANE, FERNANDINA BEACH FL 32034
Grant Dewbre	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6410 WEST HOWARD STREET, NILES IL 60714
D Bryan Norwood	officer: Vice President, CFO	6410 W HOWARD STREET, NILES IL 60714
Mark A Zorko	director	9265 FAWN LAKE DR, RALEIGH NC 27617
Karl J Schmidt	officer: CFO and VP	6410 W. HOWARD STREET, NILES IL 60714-3491
Wayne Bosch	officer: VP of HR	41 PORTSHIRE DRIVE, LINCOLNSHIRE IL 60069
David J Mansfield	officer: President and CEO	119 WIND RIDGE CIRCLE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Gerald P Oconnor	officer: Interim CFO,Principal Accntng	P O BOX 3014, NAPERVILLE IL 60566-7014
Michael J Gade	director	5501 HEADQUARTERS DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
John Mark Foster	officer: Subsidiary President	7720 N. LEHIGH AVENUE, NILES IL 60714