PrimeEnergy Resources (PrimeEnergy Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is PrimeEnergy Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PrimeEnergy Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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PrimeEnergy Resources (PrimeEnergy Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » PrimeEnergy Resources Corp (NAS:PNRG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9821 Katy Freeway, Houston, TX, USA, 77024

Website

http://www.primeenergy.com

PrimeEnergy Resources Corp is an independent oil and natural gas company that is engaged in acquiring, developing, and producing oil and natural gas. It owns producing and non-producing properties located in Texas and Oklahoma. The company's business activities include development and exploratory drilling and provide well servicing support operations for many of the onshore oil and gas wells through its subsidiaries. It is also active in the acquisition of producing oil and gas properties through joint ventures with industry partners.

Executives

Rothschild Robert De	10 percent owner	1251 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS 51ST FL, NEW YORK NY 10020
Clint Hurt	director	4015 HOLLAND #101, DALLAS TX 75219
Drimal Charles E Jr	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	4015 HOLLAND #101, DALLAS TX 75219
Gaines Wehrle	director, 10 percent owner
Gifford Fong	director
Jan K Smeets	director	4015 HOLLAND #101, DALLAS TX 75219
Mcjunkin Red Man Holding Corp	10 percent owner	FULBRIGHT TOWER, 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Mcjunkin Red Man Corp	10 percent owner	2 HOUSTON CENTER, 909 FANNIN, SUITE 3100, HOUSTON TX 77010
Rene Pierre Azria	10 percent owner	C/O JARDEN CORP, 555 THEODORE FREMD AVE, RYE NY 10580
Gimbel Thomas S T	director
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Goldman Sachs & Co. Llc	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Gs Capital Partners Vi Gmbh & Co Kg	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, New York NY 10282
Gs Capital Partners Vi Parallel Lp	10 percent owner	85 Broad St, New York NY 10004
Gs Advisors Vi, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1209 ORANGE STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801