What is Premier Financial Predictability Rank?
4 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Premier Financial Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Premier Financial (Premier Financial) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
601 Clinton Street, Defiance, OH, USA, 43512
Premier Financial Corp is a financial holding company that operates as a community banking and financial services corporation. It offers a broad range of financial services through its subsidiaries including checking accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, real estate mortgage loans, commercial loans, consumer loans, home equity loans, and trust and wealth management services.
Executives
| Rose Dennis E Jr |
officer: EVP, First Federal Bank |
601 CLINTON STREET, DEFIANCE OH 43512 |
| Donald P. Hileman |
officer: Executive Vice President, CFO |
601 CLINTON STREET, DEFIANCE OH 43512 |
| Rick L. Hull |
officer: EVP Head of Commercial Banking |
44 AUBURN AVENUE SE, NORTH CANTON OH 44720 |
| John Michael Houpt |
officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer |
601 CLINTON STREET, DEFIANCE OH 43512 |
| Louis Michael Altman |
director |
1111 EASTWOOD STREET NE, CANTON OH 44714 |
| Craig Sciara |
officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer |
601 CLINTON STREET, DEFIANCE OH 43512 |
| Terri A Bettinger |
director |
601 CLINTON STREET, DEFIANCE OH 43512 |
| Richard J Schiraldi |
director |
275 FEDERAL PLAZA WEST, YOUNGSTOWN OH 44503 |
| Jason Gendics |
officer: See Remarks |
275 WEST FEDERAL STREET, YOUNGSTOWN OH 44503-1203 |
| Nikki Robinson Lanier |
director |
601 CLINTON STREET, DEFIANCE OH 43512 |
| Samuel S Strausbaugh |
director |
601 CLINTON ST., DEFIANCE OH 43512 |
| Varun Chandhok |
officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer |
601 CLINTON STREET, DEFIANCE OH 43512 |
| Tina Nutter |
officer: EVP, Chief Risk Officer |
601 CLINTON STREET, DEFIANCE OH 43512 |
| Shannon M Kuhl |
officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer |
255 E FIFTH STREET, SUITE 2900, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Jude J. Nohra |
officer: See Remarks |
275 FEDERAL PLAZA WEST, YOUNGSTOWN OH 44503 |
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