What is Pegasystems Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Pegasystems Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Pegasystems (Pegasystems) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
One Main Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142
Founded in 1983, Pegasystems provides a suite of solutions for customer engagement and business process management. The company's key offering is the Pega Infinity platform, which combines business process management, or BPM, with customer relationship management, or CRM, applications. The company focuses on enterprise-size customers, specifically within the financial, insurance, and healthcare verticals.
Executives
| Efstathios A Kouninis |
officer: VP of Finance & CAO |
26 GRANDVIEW DRIVE, DOVER NH 03820 |
| Rifat Kerim Akgonul |
officer: Chief Product Officer |
ONE ROGERS STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Leon Trefler |
officer: SVP, Global Customer Success |
1 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Kenneth Stillwell |
officer: CFO, SVP |
ONE ROGERS STREET, CAMBRDIGE MA 02142 |
| Richard H Jones |
director |
C/O PEGASYSTEMS INC, 101 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| John Gerard Higgins |
officer: Chief, Client &Partner Success |
C/O PEGASYSTEMS INC., 1 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Michael R Pyle |
officer: Senior VP, Engineering |
C/O PEGASYSTEMS INC, 101 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIGE MA 02142 |
| Christopher Lafond |
director |
56 TOP GALLANT RD, STAMFORD CT 06904 |
| Sharon T Rowlands |
director |
195 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10007 |
| Dianne Ledingham |
director |
ONE ROGERS STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Larry Weber |
director |
C/O MIVA, INC., 5220 SUMMERLIN COMMONS BLVD., SUITE 500, FORT MYERS FL 33907 |
| Douglas I Kra |
officer: SVP, Global Customer Success |
101 MAIN STREET, C/O PEGASYSTEMS INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Hayden Stafford |
officer: President |
ONE ROGERS STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Peter Gyenes |
director |
50 WASHINGTON ST, WESBOROUGH MA 012581 |
| Alan Trefler |
10 percent owner, officer: C.E.O. & Chairman |
C/O PEGASYSTEMS INC, 101 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
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