Pure Cycle (Pure Cycle) Predictability Rank

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What is Pure Cycle Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pure Cycle Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pure Cycle (Pure Cycle) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Pure Cycle Corp (NAS:PCYO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

34501 E. Quincy Avenue, Building 65, Suite A, Watkins, CO, USA, 80137

Website

https://www.purecyclewater.com

Pure Cycle Corp is a diversified land and water resource development company. It designs, constructs, manages, operates, and maintains water and wastewater systems. The firm operates in two business segments namely Water and wastewater resource development and Land development. It generates maximum revenue from the Land development segment. The company's services include water production, storage, treatment, bulk transmission to retail distribution systems, wastewater collection and treatment, irrigation water treatment and transmission, construction management, billing, and collection. The land resource development segment includes all the activities necessary to develop and sell finished lots.

Executives

Mark W Harding	director, officer: President and CFO	8451 DELAWARE STREET, THORNTON CO 80260
Marc Stephen Spezialy	officer: Vice President and CFO	34501 E. QUINCY AVE. BLDG 65, WATKINS CO 80137
Kevin Blain Mcneill	officer: Chief Financial Officer	34501 E. QUINCY AVE, BLDG 34, WATKINS CO 80018
Plaisance Spv I, Llc	10 percent owner	250 FILLMORE, SUITE 525, DENVER CO 80206
Wanda J Abel	director	34501 QUINCY AVENUE BLDG. 34, WATKINS CO 80109
Fendel Frederick A. Iii	director	C/O PURE CYCLE CORP., 34501 E. QUINCY AVE., BLDG. 34, WATKINS CO 80137
Plaisance Capital Llc	10 percent owner	250 FILLMORE, SUITE 525, DENVER CO 80206
Patrick Beirne	director	8 VIKING DR, ENGLEWOOD CO 80113
Jeffrey G Sheets	director	5291 E. YALE AVE., DENVER CO 80222
Par Investment Partners Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, FL 48, BOSTON MA 02116
Daniel R Kozlowski	10 percent owner	250 FILLMORE, SUITE 525, DENVER CO 80206
Par Capital Management Inc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, FL 48, BOSTON MA 02116
Par Group Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 48TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Epker Arthur G Iii	director	C/O PURE CYCLE CORPORATION, 8451 DELAWARE ST., THORNTON CO 80260
Harrison E Augur	director	PO BOX 4389, ASPEN CO 81611