Highome Securities Fund (Highome Securities Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Highome Securities Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Highome Securities Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Highome Securities Fund (Highome Securities Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » High Income Securities Fund (NYSE:PCF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

615 East Michigan Street, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53202

Website

https://www.putnam.com

High Income Securities Fund is a closed-end management investment company. Its primary objective is to provide high current income and capital appreciation is the secondary objective. The Fund pursues its objective primarily by investing in both convertible bonds and convertible preferred stocks. The Fund also invests significantly in high-yielding non-convertible securities with the potential for capital appreciation.

Executives

Moritz A Sell	director	C/O USBANCORP FUND SERVICES, 777 E WISCONSIN AVE., MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Phillip Goldstein	director	60 HERITAGE DRIVE, PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570
Gerald Hellerman	director	5431 NW 21ST AVE., BOCA RATON FL 33496
Andrew Dakos	director, officer: President	250 PEHLE AVE., SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Ben H Harris	director	C/O US BANCORP FUND SERVICES, 777 EAST WISCONSIN AVE., MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Stephanie Darling	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	250 PEHLE AVE., SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Thomas Antonucci	officer: Treasurer	250 PEHLE AVE. SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Richard Dayan	director	C/O IMPERIAL HOLDINGS, INC., 701 PARK OF COMMERCE BLVD., SUITE 301, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Rajeev P Das	director	250 PEHLE AVE., SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Investors, Llp Bulldog	10 percent owner	PARK 80 WEST - PLAZA TWO, 250 PEHLE AVE. SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Edward Whalen	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer, other: Putnam Investments	PUTNAM INVESTMENTS, ONE POST OFFICE SQUARE, BOSTON MA 02109
Michael Wands	officer: Head of Global Inv Strategies, other: Putnam Investments	PUTNAM INVESTMENTS, ONE POST OFFICE SQUARE, BOSTON MA 02109
Anthony Daigle	officer: Portfolio Manager, other: Putnam Investments	PUTNAM INVESTMENTS, ONE POST OFFICE SQUARE, BOSTON MA 02109
Andra S Bolotin	officer: Chief Financial Officer, other: Putnam Investments	PUTNAM INVESTMENTS, ONE POST OFFICE SQUARE, BOSTON MA 02109
Manoj P Singh	director	PUTNAM INVESTMENTS, ONE POST OFFICE SQUARE, BOSTON MA 02109