PB Bankshares (PB Bankshares) Predictability Rank

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What is PB Bankshares Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PB Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PB Bankshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PB Bankshares (PB Bankshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » PB Bankshares Inc (NAS:PBBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

185 East Lincoln Highway, Coatesville, PA, USA, 19320

Website

https://www.presencebank.com

PB Bankshares Inc follows a community bank model and provides multiple services to individuals and small to midsize businesses. Its business consists of attracting retail and commercial deposits from the general public in its market area and investing those deposits, together with funds generated from operations and borrowings, in commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, construction, home equity lines of credit and to a lesser extent, one- to four-family residential real estate loans and consumer loans.

Executives

Janak M Amin	director, officer: President and CEO	4981 SADDLE BROOK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17112
William H Sayre	officer: EVP, Chief Credit/Risk Officer	185 E. LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
Lindsay S Bixler	officer: Chief Financial Officer	185 EAST LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
Joseph W Carroll	director	185 E. LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
Douglas L Byers	officer: Chief Banking Officer	185 EAST LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
Larry Witt	officer: Chief Info. & Oper. Officer	185 E. LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
Bony Dawood	director	185 E. LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
R Cheston Woolard	director	185 EAST LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
Jane B Tompkins	director	20 SOUTH MAIN STREET, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Spencer J Andress	director	185 E. LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
Pinno John V Iii	director	185 E. LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
Thomas R Greenfield	director	185 E. LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
Larry J Constable	director	185 E. LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320
Mary Joye Wentz	director	185 E. LINCOLN HIGHWAY, COATESVILLE PA 19320

PB Bankshares (PB Bankshares) Headlines

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