PaySign (PaySign) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1998. Start your Free Trial

What is PaySign Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PaySign Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PaySign Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of PaySign's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

PaySign (PaySign) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » PaySign Inc (NAS:PAYS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2615 St. Rose Parkway, Henderson, NV, USA, 89052

Website

https://www.paysign.com

PaySign Inc is a provider of prepaid card programs, comprehensive patient affordability offerings, digital banking services and integrated payment processing designed for businesses, consumers and government institutions. The Company creates customized, payment solutions for clients across industries, including pharmaceutical, healthcare, hospitality and retail. The company's revenues include fees generated from cardholder fees, interchange, card program management fees, transaction claims processing fees, and settlement income.

Executives

Robert Strobo	officer: Secretary	1700 W. HORIZON RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 200, HENDERSON NV 89012
Bruce A Mina	director	1700 W. HORIZON RIDGE PKWY, #200, HENDERSON NV 89012
Jeffery Bradford Baker	officer: CFO	3101 HOWELL MILL RD., UNIT 223, ATLANTA GA 3
Matthew Louis Lanford	officer: COO, President	11859 TAVEMA AVE,, LAS VEGAS NV 89138
Joan M Herman	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1700 W. HORIZON RIDGE PARKWAY #200, HENDERSON NV 89012
Mark Newcomer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO	1700 W HORIZON RIDGE PARKWAY STE 2, HENDERSON NV 89012
Daniel Spence	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CIO	1700 W HORIZON RIDGE PARKWAY STE 2, HENDERSON NV 89012
Jeffrey B Newman	director	C/O EURONET WORLDWIDE, INC., 3500 COLLEGE BOULEVARD, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Mark Kenneth Attinger	officer: CFO	34522 N.SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 120-492, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85266
Quinn P Williams	director	2375 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, STE. 700, PHOENIX AZ 85016
Daniel R Henry	director	13160 BIRCH, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Dennis L Triplett	director	1700 HORIZON RIDGE PARKWAY, #200, HENDERSON NV 89012
Brian Polan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1700 W. HORIZON RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 201, HENDERSON NV 89012
Anthony E Deprima	director, officer: Secretary
Joya Arthur De	officer: CFO	361 WISETON AVENUE, LAS VEGAS NV 89123