One Stop Systems (One Stop Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is One Stop Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

One Stop Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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One Stop Systems (One Stop Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » One Stop Systems Inc (NAS:OSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5MU:Germany

Address

2235 Enterprise Street, Suite 110, Escondido, CA, USA, 92029

Website

https://www.onestopsystems.com

One Stop Systems Inc designs and manufactures innovative Artificial intelligence (AI) Transportable edge computing modules and systems, including ruggedized servers, compute accelerators, expansion systems, flash storage arrays and Ion Accelerator SAN, NAS and data recording software for AI workflows. These products are used for AI data set capture, training, and large-scale inference in the defense, oil and gas, mining, autonomous vehicles and rugged entertainment applications. The company enables AI on the Fly by bringing AI datacenter performance to the edge, especially on mobile platforms, and by addressing the entire AI workflow, from high-speed data acquisition to deep learning, training and inference. Its products are available directly or through global distributors.

Executives

Steve D Cooper	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO	2235 ENTERPRISE ST STE 110, ESCONDIDO CA 92029
Michael J. Dumont	director	2235 ENTERPRISE STREET #110, ESCONDIDO CA 92029
Michael Knowles	officer: Chief Executive Officer	9333 BALBOA AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Gregory W Matz	director	1 WHITE OAK WAY, NOVATO CA 94949
David Raun	director	870 MAUDE AVENUE, SUNNVALE CA 94085
James M Reardon	officer: President, CDI	2235 ENTERPRISE ST STE 110, ESCONDIDO CA 92029
Teresita M. Lowman	director	2235 ENTERPRISE STREET #110, ESCONDIDO CA 92029
Kenneth F Potashner	director	C/O MAXWELL TECHNOLOGIES INC, 9244 BALBOA AVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Gioia Messinger	director	VICON INDUSTRIES, INC., 135 FELL COURT, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Jack Harrison	director	2235 ENTERPRISE STREET STE 110, ESCONDIDO CA 92029
John Ralph Reardon	director	2114 OPAL RIDGE, VISTA CA 92081
Barbara D'amato	director	6445 SOUTH TENAYA WAY, B-130, LAS VEGAS NV 89113
Jim Ison	officer: Vice President of Sales	2235 ENTERPRISE STREET STE 110, ESCONDIDO CA 92029
Kimberly C. Sentovich	director	2235 ENTERPRISE ST SUITE 110, ESCONDIDO CA 92029
Josef Bressner	officer: Managing Director, Bressner	2235 ENTERPRISE ST SUITE 110, ESCONDIDO CA 92029