Ooma (OOMA) Predictability Rank

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What is Ooma Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ooma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ooma (OOMA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Ooma Inc (NYSE:OOMA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

525 Almanor Avenue, Suite 200, Sunnyvale, CA, USA, 94085

Website

https://www.ooma.com

Ooma Inc is a United States-based provider of innovative communication solutions and other connected services to small business, home, and mobile users. The company's hybrid software-as-a-service(SaaS) platform, consisting of its proprietary cloud, on-premise appliances, mobile applications, and end-point devices, provides the connectivity and functionality that power its solutions. Its communications solutions deliver proprietary PureVoice high-definition voice quality, advanced features, and integration with mobile devices. The majority of the company's revenue is generated in the form of Subscription and services.

Executives

Eric B Stang	director, officer: CEO and Pdt
William D Pearce	director	PO BOX 193575, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94199
James A. Gustke	officer: Vice President of Marketing	C/O OOMA, INC., 1880 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Namrata Sabharwal	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O OOMA, INC., 525 ALMANOR AVENUE, SUITE 200, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Jenny C Yeh	officer: VP, General Counsel & Sec.	SPHERE 3D CORP, 9112 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Shigeyuki Hamamatsu	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1875 CHARLESTON ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Ravi Narula	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BIGBAND NETWORKS, INC., 475 BROADWAY STREET, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Russell Mann	director	C/O ONVIA, INC., 509 OLIVE WAY, SUITE 400, SEATTLE WA 98101
Judi Hand	director	9197 S. PEORIA STREET, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Alison Davis	director	255 FISERV DRIVE, BROOKFIELD WI 53045
Andrew H Galligan	director	C/O NEVRO CORP., 1800 BRIDGE PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Spencer D. Jackson	officer: VP, General Counsel & Sec.	C/O OOMA, INC., 1880 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303
James Wei	director, 10 percent owner	435 TASSO ST, SUITE 120, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Worldview Equity I, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	101 S ELLSWORTH AVENUE SUITE 401, SAN MATEO CA 94401
Susan Butenhoff	director	1880 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303