Singular Genomics Systems (Singular Genomics Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Singular Genomics Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Singular Genomics Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Singular Genomics Systems (Singular Genomics Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Singular Genomics Systems Inc (NAS:OMIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3010 Science Park Road, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.singulargenomics.com

Singular Genomics Systems Inc is a life science technology company that is leveraging novel next generation sequencing and multiomics technologies to build products that empower researchers and clinicians. The product development pipeline comprises two initial integrated solutions, each designed to leverage Sequencing Engine and purpose built to address different applications. The G4 Sequencing Platform is designed to target the NGS market. The PX Integrated Solution is designed to target the single cell, spatial analysis and proteomics markets. Both integrated solutions are used in many different and diverse market segments, including basic biology, oncology, immunology, neurology, genetic diseases, infectious diseases, the human microbiome and many others.

Executives

Andrew Spaventa	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	10931 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 100, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Eli N. Glezer	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	10931 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 100, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Jyotsna Ghai	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3010 SCIENCE PARK ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Kim P. Kamdar	director	C/O DOMAIN ASSOCIATES, L.L.C., ONE PALMER SQUARE, SUITE 515, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Marcia Eisenberg	director	C/O 908 DEVICES INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Sam Ropp	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	3010 SCIENCE PARK ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Michael J Pellini	director	222 DUTTON MILL RD, WILLISTOWN PA 19380
Elaine R Mardis	director	301 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
James E Flynn	10 percent owner, other: *Possible Member of 10% Group	780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
David Daly	officer: President and Chief Operating	10931 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 100, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Vincent Brancaccio	officer: Vice President, HR	10931 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 100, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Dalen Meeter	officer: Vice President, Finance	10931 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 100, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Daralyn Durie	officer: General Counsel	10931 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 100, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Jorge Velarde	officer: Senior Vice President	10931 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 100, LA JOLLA CA 92037
David L Barker	director	9885 TOWNE CENTRE DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121