Orchestra BioMed Holdings (Orchestra BioMed Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Orchestra BioMed Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Orchestra BioMed Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Orchestra BioMed Holdings (Orchestra BioMed Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc (NAS:OBIO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

150 Union Square Drive,, New Hope, PA, USA, 18938

Website

https://www.orchestrabiomed.com

Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc is a biomedical innovation company accelerating high-impact technologies to patients through risk-reward sharing partnerships. Its partnership-enabled business model focuses on forging strategic collaborations with medical device companies to drive the global commercialization of the products it develops. Orchestra BioMed's flagship product candidates include BackBeat Cardiac Neuromodulation Therapy (CNT) for the treatment of hypertension and Virtue Sirolimus AngioInfusionBalloon (SAB) for the treatment of atherosclerotic artery disease.

Executives

George Papandreou	officer: See Remarks	C/O ORCHESTRA BIOMED HOLDINGS, INC., 150 UNION SQUARE DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938
Eric S Fain	director	ONE ST JUDE MEDICAL DRIVE, ST. PAUL MN MN
Jason Aryeh	director	11119 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
David P Hochman	director, officer: See Remarks	15 WESTON HILL RD., RIVERSIDE CT 06878
Joshua Aiello	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	150 UNION SQUARE DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938
Yuval Mika	officer: See Remarks	150 UNION SQUARE DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938
Pamela Ann Connealy	director	320 W 37TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Darren Sherman	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O MOTUS GI HOLDINGS, INC., 1301 EAST BROWARD BLVD, 3RD FLOOR, FT. LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Rose Eric A Md	director	161 FORT WASHINGTON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10032
Andrew Lawrence Taylor	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MOTUS GI HOLDINGS, INC., 1301 EAST BROWARD BLVD, 3RD FLOOR, FT. LAUDERDALE FL 33301
William Reed Little	officer: See Remarks	C/O ORCHESTRA BIOMED HOLDINGS, INC., 150 UNION SQUARE DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938
Plc Medtronic	10 percent owner	20 ON HATCH, LOWER HATCH STREET, DUBLIN L2 2
Michael Kaswan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	KBL HEALTHCARE ACQUISITION CORP II, 645 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Geoffrey Wade Smith	director	6740 SHADY OAK ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Rtw Investments, Lp	10 percent owner	40 10TH AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014