Brookfield Oaktree Holdings LLC (Brookfield Oaktree Holdings LLC) Predictability Rank

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What is Brookfield Oaktree Holdings LLC Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Brookfield Oaktree Holdings LLC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Brookfield Oaktree Holdings LLC (Brookfield Oaktree Holdings LLC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Brookfield Oaktree Holdings LLC (NYSE:OAKpB.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OAKpA.PFD:USA

Address

333 South Grand Avenue, 28th Floor, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90071

Website

https://www.oaktreecapital.com

Oaktree Capital Group LLC is an alternative asset manager involved in investing in credit, real assets, private equity, and listed equities. It operates into one segment namely the Investment management business which consists of the services that it provides to clients. It operates in the United States where it generates the majority of its revenue.

Executives

Mansco Iii Perry	director	333 S. GRAND AVE., 28TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Depelsha Thomas Mcgruder	director	333 S. GRAND AVE., 28TH FLOOR, C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Bruce Flatt	director	C/O BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., 181 BAY STREET, P.O. BOX 762, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3
Justin B. Beber	director	C/O BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., BROOKFIELD PLACE, 181 BAY ST., STE. 300, TORONTO A6 M5J 2T3
Daniel D Levin	officer: See Remarks	333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28 TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Steven J Gilbert	director	540 MADISON AVE, 40TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jay S Wintrob	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Robert E Denham	director	MUNGER, TOLLES & OLSON LLP, 355 S. GRAND AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Wayne G Pierson	director	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Marna C Whittington	director	2959 BARLEY MILL ROAD, YORKLYN DE 19736
David Richard Masson	director	333 S GRAND AVENUE 28TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Scott L Graves	officer: Managing Director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Caleb S Kramer	officer: Managing Director	333 SOUTH GRAND AVE 28TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Larry W Keele	director	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Todd E Molz	officer: See Remarks	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071