NVE (NVEC) Predictability Rank

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What is NVE Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NVE Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NVE (NVEC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » NVE Corp (NAS:NVEC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NVK:Germany

Address

11409 Valley View Road, Eden Prarie, MN, USA, 55344

Website

https://www.nve.com

NVE Corp develops and sells devices that use spintronics, a nanotechnology that relies on electron spin. It manufactures high-performance spintronic products including sensors and couplers that are used to acquire and transmit data. The company's products include Digital sensors, Medical sensors, Rotation Sensors, GT Sensors, Angle Sensors, Analog sensors, MSOP Isolators, Passive-In Transceivers, and others. The company manufactures high-performance spintronic products including sensors and couplers. The company's designs are based on giant magnetoresistance GMR and tunneling magnetoresistance TMR combined with integrated circuitry.

Executives

Patricia M Hollister	director	3455 LYMAN BLVD, CHASKA MN 55318-3052
Daniel A Baker	director, officer: President and CEO	11409 VALLEY VIEW ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344-3617
Terrence Glarner	director	160 MONTROSE PLACE, ST. PAUL MN 55104
James W Bracke	director	15411 MASON POINTE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Curt A Reynders	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11409 VALLEY VIEW ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
James D Hartman	director
Richard W Kramp	director	174 STONEBRIDGE ROAD, ST. PAUL MN 55118
Gary R Maharaj	director	9924 WEST 74TH STREET, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Robert Irish	director	17910-39TH PLACE NORTH, PLYMOUTH MN 55446
Daughton James Dr	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer
Richard George	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Wells Fargo & Company/mn	10 percent owner	420 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94163
Partners Itasca	10 percent owner	3600 IDS CENTER, 80 SOUTH EIGHT ST, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Norwest Equity Partners Iv Lp /mn/	10 percent owner	3600 IDS CENTER 80 SOUTH EIGHTH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 554026
Still George J Jr	10 percent owner	NORWEST VENTURE PARTNERS, 525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 800, PALO ALTO CA 94301