Nortech Systems (Nortech Systems) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1993. Start your Free Trial

What is Nortech Systems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nortech Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Nortech Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Nortech Systems's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Nortech Systems (Nortech Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Nortech Systems Inc (NAS:NSYS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7550 Meridian Circle N, Suite 150, Maple Grove, MN, USA, 55369

Website

https://www.nortechsys.com

Nortech Systems Inc is a United States-based electronic manufacturing services company. It offers value-added engineering, technical and manufacturing services and support including project management, design, testing, prototyping, manufacturing, supply chain management, and post-market services. The company's manufacturing and engineering services include complete medical devices, printed circuit board assemblies, wire and cable assemblies, and complex higher-level electro-mechanical assemblies. It operates in the Medical, Aerospace, Defense and Industrial markets with key revenue coming from Medical device and product manufacturing and related engineering services.

Executives

Amy S. Fredregill	director	7550 MERIDIAN CIRCLE N., SUITE # 150, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Jose Antonio Peris	director	7550 MERIDIAN CIRCLE N., SUITE # 150, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
David B Kunin	director	7201 METRO BOULEVARD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55439
David J. Graff	director	7550 MERIDIAN CIRCLE N., SUITE 150, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Daniel Ramon Everingham	10 percent owner	617 COUNTRY VIEW LANE, GARLAND TX 75043
Jay D Miller	director	7550 MERIDIAN CIR N, SUITE 150, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Christopher Dean Jones	officer: CFO	7550 MERIDIAN CIRCLE N., SUITE 150, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Stacy A Kruse	director	7401 BOONE AVENUE NORTH, BROOKLYN PARK MN 55428
Philip Irving Smith	director	4503 BROWNDALE AVENUE, EDINA MN 55424
Dan Sachs	director	7550 MERIDIAN CIRCLE N., MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Steven J Rosenstone	director	7550 MERIDIAN CIR N, SUITE 150, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Heidi B Grange	officer: Senior Vice President of HR	7550 MERIDIAN CIRCLE N, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
John Lindeen	officer: Sr VP - Global Operations	7550 MERIDIAN CIRCLE N, SUITE 150, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Beck Constance	officer: Chief Financial Officer	NORTECH SYSTEMS INCORPORATED, 7550 MERDIAN CIRCLE N, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369
Matt Mahmood	officer: Chief Operating Officer	7550 MERIDIAN CIRCLE N, SUITE 150, MAPLE GROVE MN 55369