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NEUBERGER BERMAN REAL ESTATE SECURITIESOME FUND (NEUBERGER BERMAN REAL ESTATE SECURITIESOME FUND) Predictability Rank


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What is NEUBERGER BERMAN REAL ESTATE SECURITIESOME FUND Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NEUBERGER BERMAN REAL ESTATE SECURITIESOME FUND Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

NEUBERGER BERMAN REAL ESTATE SECURITIESOME FUND Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NEUBERGER BERMAN REAL ESTATE SECURITIESOME FUND (NEUBERGER BERMAN REAL ESTATE SECURITIESOME FUND) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » NEUBERGER BERMAN REAL ESTATE SECURITIES INCOME FUND INC (AMEX:NRO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
BANX BTA BWG SPE IGA DMO WEA JHS MSD HEQ BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
c/o Neuberger Berman Investment Advisers LLC, 1290 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10104-0002
Website
https://www.nb.com
NEUBERGER BERMAN REAL ESTATE SECURITIES INCOME FUND INC is a closed-end management investment company that invests mainly in securities issued by real estate companies, including real estate investment trusts (REITs). Its primary objective is to gain high current income with capital appreciation being the second. The fund invests in sectors, such as apartments, Data Centers, Infrastructure REITs, Manufactured Homes, Office, Regional Malls and others.
Executives
Franklyn E. Smith director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN INVESTMENT ADVISERS, 1290 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104-0002
Ami Kaplan director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN INVESTMENT ADVISERS, 1290 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104-0002
Faith Colish director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT INC, 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
Investors, Llp Bulldog 10 percent owner PARK 80 WEST - PLAZA TWO, 250 PEHLE AVE. SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
Steven Samuels 10 percent owner 72 COLEYTOWN ROAD, WESTPORT CT 06882
Phillip Goldstein 10 percent owner 60 HERITAGE DRIVE, PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570
Andrew Dakos 10 percent owner 250 PEHLE AVE., SUITE 708, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
James G. Stavridis director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
Deborah C. Mclean director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
Marc Gary director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-3698
Brian Patrick Kerrane officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158
Michael J. Cosgrove director C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Peter P Trapp director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT INC, 605 THIRD AVENUE 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
Jack L Rivkin director 1200 PROSPECT STREET, SUITE 400, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Sun Life Financial Inc 10 percent owner SUN LIFE ASSURANCE CO OF CANADA, ONE YORK STREET, TORONTO A6 M5J 0B6