Nerdy (NRDY) Predictability Rank

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What is Nerdy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nerdy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nerdy (NRDY) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Nerdy Inc (NYSE:NRDY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 S. Hanley Road, Suite 300, St. Louis, MO, USA, 63105

Website

https://www.nerdy.com

Nerdy Inc is a curated direct-to-consumer platform for live online learning. Its purpose-built proprietary platform leverages technology, including AI, to connect learners of all ages to experts, delivering superior value on both sides of the network. Its comprehensive learning destination provides learning experiences across various subjects and multiple formats including one-on-one instruction, small group classes, large format group classes, and adaptive self-study.

Executives

Jason H. Pello	officer: Chief Financial Officer	NERDY INC., 101 S. HANLEY RD., SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Christopher C. Swenson	officer: Chief Legal Officer	NERDY INC., 101 S. HANLEY RD., SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Charles K. Cohn	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	NERDY INC., 101 S. HANLEY RD., SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Heidi Robinson	officer: Chief Product Officer	NERDY INC., 101 S. HANLEY RD., SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Tpg Gp A, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Light Street Mercury Master Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 300, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Stuart Udell	director	2300 CORPORATE PARK DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20171
Christopher P Marshall	director	250 MIDDLEFIELD RD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jon Winkelried	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Gregory Mrva	officer: President	C/O CITADEL BROADCASTING CORPORATION, 7201 W. LAKE MEAD BLVD. 400, LAS VEGAS NV 89128
Technology Crossover Management Viii, Ltd.	10 percent owner, other: Member of a 13(d) group	C/O TECHNOLOGY CROSSOVER VENTURES, 250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Technology Crossover Manangement Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: Member of a 13(d) group	528 RAMONA STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Tcv Viii (a), L.p.	other: Member of a 13(d) group	528 RAMONA STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Tcv Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: Member of a 13(d) group	528 RAMONA STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Catherine Beaudoin	director	NERDY INC., 101 S. HANLEY RD., SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63105